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the theme of Taiwan is currently at the center of US-China relations and dominated a call between the presidents of Joe Biden Y Xi Jinping , in late July, in which Xi warned Biden not to “play with fire” over the island, which China considers a rogue province. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Pelosi’s stopover in Taiwan would have “a severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations.”
Media-driven speculation surrounding the lead-up to the US House Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi, contributed to creating an alarmist atmosphere and experts warned of a dangerous crisis, which threatened to turn into a military confrontation between the United States and China.
What did Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan show about the state of US-China relations?
China has never renounced the use of force to take control of Taiwan.
Taiwan’s democratically elected government says that, since the People’s Republic of China has never ruled the island, it has no right to decide its future, that only its 23 million inhabitants can decide, without coercion.
Washington does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but is required by law to provide you with the means to defend yourself.
The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) published an analysis that condenses three points of these relationships at the present time.
Taiwan is key in US-China relations
While most Americans view the ongoing US ties with Taiwan as prudent and positive and provide much-needed stability across the Taiwan Strait, most Chinese have viewed US actions as contravening the spirit, if not the letter, of the many formal US commitments to China.
Trends trump events
Recent research by USIP suggests that China perceives that the Biden administration has undertaken a significant change in its Taiwan policy, with a concerted effort to improve US relations with the island.
This perception is the polar opposite of the message the Biden administration intended to send to Beijing: that US policy on Taiwan remains unchanged and is entirely consistent with the approach of previous administrations.
Current relations between the two governments are plagued by mutual suspicion and mistrust.
Watch out for the tipping point to come
Third, trends notwithstanding, a tipping point may appear in the future: an event that may push Beijing to take military action against Taiwan.
In the context of China, the United States, and Taiwan, a turning point refers to a moment when Beijing: determines that Taiwan’s path has veered inexorably away from unification, concludes that its “peaceful reunification” strategy has failed and decide that the time has come to focus on the unification of Taiwan by force.
China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has been holding war games and military exercises on the island to show its anger over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, canceled or suspended some exchanges with the United States and announced that they would impose unspecified sanctions against the speaker and her family.
China’s efforts to coerce and undermine Taiwan risk miscalculation and most likely his pressure campaign will continue, Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, said Wednesday, according to CNBC.
During a conference call, Kritenbrink, deputy secretary of state for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said that China had used Pelosi’s trip as an excuse to change the status quo, endangering peace.
“While our policy has not changed, what has changed is the increasing coercion from Beijing. The words and actions of the People’s Republic of China are deeply destabilizing. They risk miscalculation and threaten the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait,” Kritenbrink said. The United States has conveyed to China in every conversation that it is not seeking and will not provoke a crisis, he noted.